The 11th-hour fight to win Nevada

HENDERSON, Nevada — Donald Trump does not want to make the same mistake again.
In 2020, when he lost Nevada by a hair to President Joe Biden, his campaign filed a lawsuit to declare him the victor. There was fraud involving the state’s mail-in ballots and early voting, the lawsuit alleged, and Trump was the rightful winner. The lawsuit was later tossed, and the Nevada Supreme Court declared Biden the state’s winner, effectively securing his status as president-elect.
Four years later, Nevada is again one of the states that could decide the election. This time, Trump isn’t taking chances.
Instead of casting doubt on mail-in ballots and early voting, the Trump campaign — and Trump himself — is pushing an all-of-the-above approach to voting. In Nevada, turnout on the first day of early voting crushed the mark from 2020, thanks to a surge of new Republican early-voters. By Friday evening, when early voting ended in Nevada, nearly half of all early votes cast were done so by registered Republicans, compared to less than 30% by Democrats. And even mail-in ballots — sent out to every Nevada voter, but maligned by Trump both before and after the 2020 election as a fraudulent practice — saw a huge uptick in Republican participation: over 140,000 Republicans had mailed ballots by Friday.
“In 2020, they blamed the game. Now, they’re playing the game,” said Zachary Moyle, a Las Vegas-based Republican consultant and former executive director of the state GOP, said of Trump’s campaign.
At Trump’s rally in Henderson, Nevada on Thursday, Trump himself joined in. “We’ve been setting records in early voting, but we can’t let up,” he said.
With four days until Election Day, the outcome of the race in Nevada — as it is in swing states across the country — is impossible to predict. Of all the battleground states, Nevada may be the quirkiest: its tourism-based economy makes its population transient, and thus difficult to accurately predict. Its voters have a propensity for split-ticket voting. And while the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged the state’s economy, it also bolstered its population: Nevada saw year-over-year population growth since 2020, thanks in part to a flock of Californians who arrived during the pandemic.
At present, polls show Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris neck-and-neck. The latest Noble Predictive Insights poll shows Harris ahead by two percentage points; when “leaners” are factored in, Harris leads by one. “It’s the sort of edge that could be reversed by changing turnout patterns, late deciders, or numerous other events,” Mike Noble, the group’s founder & CEO, said in a statement. “But, at this moment, a visible advantage exists for Harris.”
On Thursday, both Harris and Trump stormed Las Vegas, making what will likely be their final visit to Nevada before Tuesday’s election. In back-to-back rallies, the candidates made their closing arguments to Nevadans — pitching the voters who may decide the election.
No matter how close the polls are, Trump’s supporters are confident he’ll win the state. “I don’t see how he can’t win, really,” said Ariel, a Clark County resident who attended Trump’s rally at Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson. (She declined to share her last name.) Allan Talley, a 37-year-old who lives in Las Vegas, agreed. “I just feel like if (Harris) somehow pulls this off, there had to be cheating going on,” he said. “I don’t see how it could possibly go for Kamala.”
Both Ariel and Talley work in real estate, and they both noted that the economy is the top issue for them — as it is for most Nevada voters. “Our housing market is number-one for me,” Ariel said. As the Las Vegas metro area has grown in recent years, housing supply has not kept up with the demand. The median home price in Las Vegas has increased by more than 50% over the past five years, and interest rates continue to be much higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Across Nevada, the unemployment rate sits above the national average, and wages have not caught up with inflation.
To those impacted by the housing market, Trump’s opening line at the rally seemed especially poignant. “I’d like to start by asking a very simple question,” he said. “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”
Much of Trump’s speech focused on his promise to “bring back” the American economy. “Very simply, I will make America affordable again, because it’s not affordable anymore,” he said.
Some experts warn that Trump’s plans on tariffs and mass deportations will pass costs onto American consumers. But Harris’ economic plan — that includes down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers and a tax credit for developers — gives Ariel pause. “That money has to come from somewhere,” she said. She credits government spending for causing the current high levels of inflation. “We’re seeing it impact your day-to-day, regular home buyers,” she said. “It’s stopping people from being able to achieve the American dream.”
Another important factor that could swing the state is the Latter-day Saint vote. Both Harris and Trump have targeted members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Nevada, a historically Republican voting bloc that has shown some resistance to Trump in recent elections. Latter-day Saints make up nearly six percent of the state’s population.
Harold Erbacher, a Las Vegas resident who attended Trump’s rally with his 84-year-old mother, said he tells his religious friends to look past Trump’s character. “Some of them, quite a few, don’t like Trump’s personality,” Erbacher, who recently converted to Christianity, said. “I tell them, it’s not a personality contest.”
Hours later, when Harris took the stage at the Craig Ranch Amphitheater in North Los Vegas, her speech closely mirrored the themes she discussed during her “closing argument” address in Washington on Tuesday.
She spoke about joy and unity. She touched on her plans to build an “opportunity economy” and to lower costs (her top priority, she said, is “bringing down the cost of your living”). She spoke about protecting abortion rights. And she said it is time to “turn the page” on Trump.
“As far as I’m concerned, we’re done with the idea that the measure of the strength of a leader is based upon who you beat down, when we know the real measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you lift up,” she said.
The rally was a show of contrasts with Trump’s. Jennifer Lopez, who introduced Harris, said there is “no candidate in the history of the presidency that is more qualified” than Harris; earlier, Trump called Harris “low IQ” and “grossly incompetent.”
To William Moore, a veteran who lives in Clark County, Harris’ speech struck the right tone. “She’s very genuine,” he said. “She has very precise things she wants to do when she’s elected.”
In Nevada, Harris has the advantage of running on the same ballot as an abortion measure. If passed, the measure would legalize the “fundamental right” to an abortion up until “fetal viability.” Democrats expect the measure to drive turnout and encourage support for Harris, who has made abortion rights a central part of her candidacy.
Republicans, however, are projecting calmness. “It hasn’t had as much impact as Democrats were hoping,” said Zach Guymon, a Republican strategist based in Las Vegas. “We’ve seen very little advertising on the measure itself. … Abortion was a big issue in 2022, but that has faded.”
To attendees at Harris’ rally, though, the issue was top-of-mind. “First and foremost, a woman’s right to choose (is the top issue to me),” said Vee Tabor. “It’s between a woman and her doctor.”
Harris is also running on the same ballot as Sen. Jacky Rosen, the Democratic incumbent who faces a challenge from Republican Sam Brown. For months, the race looked to be out of reach for Brown; in recent weeks, polls have narrowed as Brown has drawn on his closeness with Trump.
While Nevada voters have split tickets in key races before, a Harris victory likely cannot come without Rosen’s success, either. And Rosen’s 2018 election into the Senate came on the wings of record turnout from young voters — a demographic Harris is targeting in Nevada.
“I see the promise of America in all the young leaders who are here and voting for the first time,” Harris said Thursday. “I love Gen Z, I love you guys.”
Imer Cespedes, a 21-year-old student at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas, said Gen Z can “turn this election.”
“This is my first time voting for president,” Cespedes said. “That speech energized me to continue to make sure my friends and other students get out and vote.”
The most important issues to Cespedes are affordable college and gun violence prevention. He was on campus during the shooting at UNLV last year.
Voters at the Harris rally were also projecting confidence. “She’s not just going to win Nevada,” Cespedes said. “She’s going to win the entire election.”
Only a few more days, and it’ll be clear whose confidence was well-placed.